Search results for "Modelling Study"
showing 4 items of 4 documents
Are There Any Parameters Missing in the Mathematical Models Applied in the Process of Spreading COVID-19?
2021
Simple Summary Nowadays, enhancing development of mathematical models is very important to help in the prediction of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID1-19). However, the vast majority of published model-based predictions do not cover people who left the epidemic COVID-19 positive (alive) and they must be included in studies to guarantee a more accurate model for application in public health. The epidemic development phenomenon can be obtained with a modelling framework. Abstract On 11 March 2020, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). As of 12.44 GMT on 15 January 2021, it has produced 93,640,296 cases and 2,004,984 deaths. The use …
Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a modelling study
2021
Background. High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods. In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to e…
Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
2021
Background: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature–mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the gri…
Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015:a modelling study
2017
WOS: 000426979400014